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Articles | Sustainable Environmental Insight | Volume 3 - Issue 1 - 2026 | 72−88 | https://doi.org/10.53623/sein.v3i1.1021
© 2026 by the author(s), and is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License

Climate-Resilient Solution for Drinking Water Management Through Atmospheric Water Harvesting: A Systematic Case Study of Atmospheric Water Generation Deployment in Zambia Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis

Author(s): Ekolle Ndinde Eya ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0651-6206 , Tochukwu Ambrose Ngwu ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6312-6709 , Tochukwu Michael Odoh ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9386-9146 , Ibrahim Ayinla Mahmud ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5500-3941 , Deborah Osayie Abashiya ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8783-4018 , Chukwu Uzo Ogonnaya , Emmanuel Ebubechukwu Oguh ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4651-1930 , Dapo Amupitan Oluwayomi ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3326-1787
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Department of Research, EKCÖLAB, 00237, Buea, Cameroon

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Sustainable Environmental Insight

Volume 3 - Issue 1 - 2026

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Southern Africa, specifically Zambia, was still faced with the challenge of water scarcity coupled with climate variability, which posed a significant threat to access to safe potable water. Due to the lack of adequate supply systems, there was a growing need for decentralized and climate-resilient systems. One alternative system was Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG); however, the existing literature on AWG usability was largely centered on machine specifications, with limited insight into its feasibility within specific climatic and demographic contexts. Accordingly, this study assessed the community-scale feasibility of AWG deployment in Zambia by integrating climate variability, population demand, and uncertainty into a unified planning framework. Monthly temperature and relative humidity data were integrated with ward-level population statistics and manufacturer performance specifications of an HPT3000 AWG unit. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was applied to propagate uncertainty in climate, demand, and system performance, while seasonal risk indices were used to quantify reliability. Relative humidity (r = 0.95) and temperature (r = −0.24) demonstrated significant influence, generating 17–29% of the minimum potable water demand per ward. The output dropped by more than 80% during dry months due to seasonal variation, implying strong climatic sensitivity, while MCS showed a 52.1% probability of failing to meet 10% of the baseline potable water demand. The findings demonstrated that AWG was unsuitable as a sole water source but could potentially be used as a climate-conditioned auxiliary system when strategically positioned to complement risk-based, decentralized water planning under hydro-climatic uncertainty.

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SUBMITTED: 28 January 2026
ACCEPTED: 28 February 2026
PUBLISHED: 3 March 2026
SUBMITTED to ACCEPTED: 31 days
DOI: https://doi.org/10.53623/sein.v3i1.1021

Cite this article
Eya, E. N., Ngwu , T. A., Odoh, T. M. ., Mahmud, I. A. ., Abashiya, D. O. ., Ogonnaya , C. U. ., Oguh , E. E. ., & Oluwayomi , D. A. . (2026). Climate-Resilient Solution for Drinking Water Management Through Atmospheric Water Harvesting: A Systematic Case Study of Atmospheric Water Generation Deployment in Zambia Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis. Sustainable Environmental Insight, 3(1), 72−88. https://doi.org/10.53623/sein.v3i1.1021
Keywords
Water Security Monte Carlo simulation Atmospheric water generation Climate change Sustainability
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